The 545 Election Result Tracker

The 545 Election Result Trackerfeatured

As counting begins, The 545 will maintain a live blog to tell you the news as and when it breaks. Please keep refreshing the page.


3.23pm – The BJP has swept the polls and has decimated the incumbent UPA government. India will have a new leader in the coming days.

2.13pm – BJP office, Delhi.

1.43pm -  The results are trickling in.

1.31pm – Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh calls Shri Narendra Modi and congratulated him on his party’s victory in the Lok Sabha elections.

1.30pm - Sayan Banerjee: It is not a wave, it is an electoral tsunami. The BJP is on its way to getting seats in Kerala and West Bengal, and winning nearly 70 seats in Uttar Pradesh. Narendra Modi seems set to become India’s next Prime Minister.

However, a few things to note:

1. The death of the regional parties is exaggerated. The Trinamool, AIADMK, TDP and others are doing pretty well.

2. In a wave election, the party riding the wave overperforms. One would be wise to wait till the 2019 to write obituaries of rival parties. It is likely in 2019, even if BJP wins again, the regional parties may win more seats at its expense, than what they won this time. Besides, in state legislative elections, the results might be quite different than what we are seeing today. All politics is local.

3. Polling is hard job in India. It looks as if the Chanakya Poll got it right. Given the experience of 2009 and 2014, to get the seat numbers right, pollsters should incorporate a mechanism where they award extra seats to the party that have the late momentum.

4. Arun Jaitley must be feeling pretty sad. When it seems every BJP candidate is winning, he is losing in Amritsar. A clear tactical error by the candidate and the Punjab BJP.

12.33pm – Even as Congress is counting it’s losses in erstwhile Andhra Pradesh, Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen’s Owaisi is leading in Hyderabad.

12.14pm – And Narendra Modi makes it Twitter-official:

  11.32am – Before #Elections2014, #BJP‘s best performance was in 1998 & 1999. See #Congress in 1984.  

Before #Elections2014, #BJP‘s best performance was in 1998 & 1999. See #Congress in 1984. @MilanV @rukmini_shrini pic.twitter.com/IVRLE5G6rI — Mathang Seshagiri (@mathangcito) May 16, 2014

11.23am – Mentions of major candidates and political parties from April 6, 2014 via Quartz. 11.15am

10.57am

— barkha dutt (@BDUTT) May 16, 201410.53am – Constituency-wise trends: Amritsar.

10.50am – According to the Election Commission tracker, Rahul Gandhi leading BJP’s Smriti Irani by just 1666. In 2009, he won by around 350,000.

10.43am – Looking at the numbers. 10.42am - BJP supporters celebrate in Varanasi where Modi is leading by more than 12k votes.

10.40am - K. Chandrasekhar Rao, who could well be the next CM of Telangana, is leading by over 30, 000 votes in Medak.

10.38am - Some early signs that an wave is forming for the BJP.

1. After about a third of the votes counted, BJP’s O Rajagopalan is leading Shashi Tharoor by about 10,000 votes in Thiruvananthapuram. It’s a pretty slim lead but astounding nonetheless.

2. A second sign of a massive wave is that BJP is leading in 5 seats in West Bengal, including Asansol, a bellwether seat for BJP’s national performance and surprisingly in South Kolkata, a Trinamool fort.

3. It’s a complete washout for the Congress in central and western India. Kamal Nath is trailing in Chhindwada, a Congress bastion.

4. Perhaps the biggest surprise of the day so far, Ajit Singh of RLD, an UPA partner has lost to the BJP’s Satypal Singh in Baghpat. Ajit Singh is an institution in western UP and it’s a bellwether for upcoming results in western UP.

10.31am

10.28am -Trinamool Congress’ Tapas Pal is leading in Krishnanagar in West Bengal.

 

10.27am - BJP candidate Sukhbir Singh Jaunapuria leading in Tonk, Congress’s Mohammed Azharuddin trailing.

10.24am –  Update | Rahul Gandhi

 

10.21am – Dr. ST Hasan, the Samajwadi Party’s Moradabad candidate, is leading with Kunwer Sarvesh Kumar of BJP trailing.

Moradabad – SP leading: http://eciresults.nic.in/statewiseS24.htm?st=S24

10.20am -BJP’s Babul Supriyo is leading in West Bengal’s Asansol, another of the 10 seats to watch out for today.

 

10.19am – Shashi Tharoor is trailing O. Rajagopal in Thiruvananthapuram, one of the 10 key seats we are watching today.

10.17am – On the ground.

10.15am - BJP leading in Bellary: http://eciresults.nic.in/statewiseS10.htm?st=S10

10.07am - BJP leads in 54 of 80 uttar pradesh seats. that is a lot.

http://eciresults.nic.in/PartyWiseResultS24.htm?st=S24 … #IndianElections2014

10.01am -BIG WINS: Ex Mumbai police chief, BJP’s Satyapal Singh wins from Baghpat, Uttar Pradesh.

9.56am – BJP Office, Delhi.

9.53am - First big result: RLD chief Ajit Singh loses to BJP’s Satyapal Singh from Baghpat (UP).

9.40am –  The band has arrived at the BJP office in Delhi. Nitya Rao reports.

10.18am - News from the 10 seats you should be watching – former Indian cricketer Mohammed Azharuddin is leading in Rajasthan’s Tonk Sawai Madhopur.

10.16am - Jaitley trailing in Amritsar to captain Amarinder Singh.

10.12am –  BJP office in Delhi. 

10.10am – NDTV is pointing towards a new government.

 

10.06am – The elephant in the room. Nitya Rao is on the ground at the BJP office in Delhi.

10.02am – A little confusion about Rahul Gandhi leading in his own seat:

9.28am – Press Information Bureau: –  Congress candidate Jyotiraditya Scindia leads from Guna in Madhya Pradesh.

9.26am – Press Information Bureau : – Priya Dutt of Congress trails from Mumbai North Central.

9.21am – BJP is making a move for the seats.

 

9.20am – Methi pakoda anyone?

 

9.19am - Jaganmohan Reddy’s YSR Congress and the Telangana Rashtra Samiti might be in for a shock, given that both lost the municipal polls earlier this week. The Telugu Desam won most of the municipal seats in Seemandhra suggesting a grassroots wave in its favor. Surprisingly the Congress was ahead of TRS in Telangana, where many expected it to lose.

9.13am –  The Aam Aadmi Party takes a closer look.

 

9.11am – Current trends for Bihar.

 

9.07am –  BJP’s Meenakshi Lekhi is ahead in New Delhi constituency.

9.06am - Modi ahead by 53,000 votes in Vadodara seat

9.05am – Filling up the seats and measuring trends via Quartz.

9.01am - Latest leads 345 seats: Modi – 187, Rahul – 70, Kejriwal –  3, Others – 85 according to ABP News.

8.58am - BJP candidate Sushma Swaraj leads from Vidisha in Madhya Pradesh.

8.57am – BJP candidate B. S. Yeddyurappa leads from Shimoga.

 

8.55am - Smriti Irani leading in Amethi. Rahul Gandhi trails.

8.47am - A quick primer on what to watch in the first few hours as the early votes start to come in on this D-Day for candidates and voters alike.

1. The BJP needs to sweep central and western India. Watch for early trends in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, where the BJP is expected to win back 1-15% seats it lost in 2009 to the Congress. This includes seats like Khajuraho, Satna, Ujjain (Madhya Pradesh); Rajkot, Anand (Gujarat) and Jodhpur, Kota (Rajasthan).

2. In western Uttar Pradesh, the communally-polarised atmosphere could help the BJP win big in this region. Western UP is crucial for the BJP to have any hope of winning 50+ seats in the state. Watch out for early trends in the Kairana, Meerut & Muzaffarnagar seats.

3. Exit polls underestimated the Congress’ strength in the last two rounds of general elections. Will they be wrong the third time? For that to happen, it’s essential that the Congress wins the constituencies where they are head-to-head against the BJP.

At the same time, they will need to hold on to their incumbent seats in states where the BJP is weak. Keep an eye on central and southern Karnataka’s Tumkur, Kollar and Mysore seats. Also watch out for northern Bengal seats of Murshidabad, Raiganj and Jangipur, where Pranab Mukherjee’s son Abhijit is locked in a tough four-way battle.

4. In Bihar, by all accounts, the RJD-Congress has momentum and may well spring a surprise. Watch out for the Muslim-heavy eastern Bihar seats of Katihar, Madhepura and Bhagalpur. Will the Yadav-Muslim caste combination finally deliver seats for the RJD and Congress, after a decade in Bihar?

 

8.44am – Shashi Tharoor now leads Thiruvananthapuram after trailing earlier in the day.

8.41am - Nandan Nilekani is trailing against incumbent MP, Ananth Krishna in Bangalore South.

8.35am - The early numbers are in. In 10 out of 543 constituencies, BJP leads in 6 constituencies. The Congress leads in only one, so far.

8.33am - Medha Patkar reportedly files complaint.

 

 8.30am – Respond to the 545 team in real time via Facebook and Twitter

8.22am – 6 takeaways from the biggest elections ever:  From Quartz 

8.21am –  BJP leads by one seat in Gujarat

 

8.18am - Early results.

 

8.16am – Numbers are coming thick and fast.

 

8.13am - Check out who won the election on Twitter according to Quartz.

8.00am – And if there is a Modi wave, as many have predicted, here are the 10 seats that you need to track over the next few hours.

It’s 8 AM. Counting has begun.

 

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